One might think the above quote comes from Yogi Berra. The real author was Niels Bohr, a Danish nuclear physicist who worked on the atom bomb.
It sounds silly to talk of predictions about anything but the future, but it's not. Sometimes predictions about the past are difficult, too. The following is an example of a prediction about the past.
It concerns the battles of Sappony Church, fought Juue 28-29, 1864, and the first battle of Reams Station, fought June 29, 1864, during the Wilson-Kautz Raid.
Alfred R. Waud, Destruction of Genl. Lee's Lines of Communication in Virginia by Genl. Wilson (LOC)
A reader of the manuscript of my next book, Grant Lays Siege to Lee: Petersburg, June 18-July 1, 1864, insists on knowing at which of the two battles the Federal casualties occurred.
He thinks it is possible to know this.
I disagree for the following reasons.
Wilson's division did most, possibly all, the fighting at Sappony Church on June 28. Any casualties listed for that date in the units of that division, as well as in the units of Kautz's division, belong to the battle of Sappony Church.
Both divisions, except for Chapman's brigade of Wilson's division, departed Sappony Church for Reams Station (about 10 miles away) during the night of June 28-29. Any casualties listed for June 29 in Kautz's division or McIntosh's brigade of Wilson's division occurred at or on the way to Reams Station.
Chapman's brigade remained at Sappony Church, where it was routed by Confederate cavalry on June 29.
If its troopers had all fled in one direction, determining where its casualties occurred on that day--Sappony Church or Reams Station--would still be possible.
What I think makes it impossible to allocate Federal casualties for June 29 for Sappony Church or Reams Station is that some survivors of Chapman's brigade fled to Reams Station, where they suffered additional casualties, and at least some of the state attorney general reports on the casualties of June 29 (Vermont, for example--the 1st Vermont Cavalry belonged to Chapman's brigade) specify only the date and not the place of the death, wounding or capture of the soldier in question.
But we shall see.
In the days or weeks to come, we'll be going over the state attorney general reports on all the regiments of Chapman's brigade at Sappony Church: the 3rd Indiana Cavalry (Cos. A-F), the 8th and 22nd New York cavalry regiments, and the 1st Vermont Cavalry (which I think already proves my point because I've gone over that state attorney general report).
With respect to June 29, we may be going down a rabbit hole. It's probably impossible to allocate all the Federal casualties for that day and we may have to look at Sappony Church-Reams Station on June 29 as a single battle. (Livermore, for example, in Numbers and Losses splits up the battle of Jonesboro into two battles of one day each, one for August 31, 1864, and the other for September 1, 1864.)
On the other hand, even if I'm right about June 29, we should be able to determine the Federal casualties for the other days and actions of the Raid, particularly the fights at Black's and Whites/Nottoway Court House/The Grove on June 23, Staunton River Bridge on June 25, and Sappony Church on June 28.
William Waud, General Grant's Campaign - Return of Kautz's Cavalry Expedition from Its Raid in Virginia (LOC)
