As I slog toward the completion of my next book, Grant Lays Siege to Lee: Petersburg, June 20-July 1, 1864, my researcher and I are trying to determine the number of casualties at the battle of Jerusalem Plank Road, June 21-24, 1864 and during the Wilson-Kautz Raid of June 22-July 1, 1864.
Box of Records from 3rd Cavalry Division, Army of the Potomac (National Archives)
We're finding out how difficult predictions about the past are.
Such predictions are called "estimates."
One would think predictions about the past would be easy, but we don't know all that happened in the past, particularly the details.
An example of a prediction about the past that proved difficult was my estimate of casualties in the two brigades from V Corps that participated in the fighting at Jerusalem Plank Road on June 21-23.
I had figures on three of the seven regiments in Sweitzer's brigade of Griffin's division and no figures on any of the five regiments of Dushane's brigade of Ayres' division.
According to two regimental histories and an official report, one of Sweitzer's seven regiments had lost four men, another five, and the third, seven. Extrapolating from that information, I figured that Sweitzer's brigade had lost a total of about 37 and that Dushane's brigade had lost around 27.
Luckily, I researched further because my prediction about the past was wrong. Examining regimentals and state rosters that are available online, I found that Sweitzer's brigade had lost seven on June 21, 21 on June 22, and five on June 23. I found from a brigade history and a state adjutant general report that Dushane's brigade had lost four on June 22. The actual total was thus 37 rather than 64, as I had estimated.
My researcher once published ar article estimating the losses of Sanders' and Finegan's brigades at First Reams Station on June 29, 1864, a fight during the Wilson-Kautz Raid, at 140. Fortunately, Al Young shared his research on Confederate casualties with me. Al reviews compiled service records (CSRs) to determine casualties. According to CSRs, Sanders' brigade lost 53 while Finegan's brigade lost 38, a total of 91. A memoir informed me that Sanders' brigade had lost at least 32 more in the morning as prisoners, but they all were freed by the end of the day.
So don't guestimate, look. The figures are almost certainly there. Even the routed, shattered Federal cavalry regiments of the Wilson-Kautz Raid left lists of casualties that made their way into the National Archives and figure in the rosters of those units published by their state adjutant generals. I'm plodding through the 404 pages of such a roster now!
